WSJ: Does a slower economy increase athleticism?

Slow Economy, Faster Marathons?

The Wall Street Journal online edition had an article that presented evidence of laid-off workers running faster road races. Overall, marathon times in the U.S. have gotten faster this year after slumping a bit in 2007 and 2008. The author suggests that this is because, during 2007-2008 people were trying to hold onto their jobs as the economy started to contract--which in turn meant that they sacrificed their early morning run for an even earlier arrival to the office. In 2009 when massive layoffs really started adding up more people had time to train for major athletic events, like marathons.

Is this a spurious relationship or not?

At first the economist in me said, this is probably just a fluke in the data. The evidence the author provides is really just aggregate level stuff that says marathon times have gotten faster this year. Then the author proceeds to say that this is because a lot of those unemployed people are actually competitive marathon runners... seems a little far-fetched. I could believe once people are laid off they take up running as a hobby--hence why marathon registration has increased, but I don't know about their times being significantly faster statistically. Wouldn't once ''regular Joe's'' have to be training a more than 6-9 months to get really, really fast? I would think so.

I can more easily believe the student athlete story that goes like this: Athletes who graduated recently are more likely to try and run competitively this year than in the past because they know that the job market is so unfavorable. The cost-benefit calculation has really changed for new grads. The cost of pursuing a hobby like competitive running is less costly because you're probably not giving up a salary at some high-paying job (however you are giving up health insurance, potentially). The benefit, is that you don't have to go through the pain of searching for a job during a recession, and you get to do what you love--run races (and potentially get paid for it)! I can see how this would skew the data towards faster times, if all of a sudden you have a huge pool of competitive runners being dumped into the marathon pool.

In the article, the author interviews a few recently laid off workers-turned competitive marathon runners. Their anecdotes fit his story about the evidence. I thought to myself, maybe this isn't completely spurious. I even thought about my own situation. This summer I'm taking enough summer classes to keep me busy, so I'm not working a part-time job like I usually would. I've always been a recreational runner-- but my pace has always been very, well, recreational--at around 10 minutes per mile for longer races. This summer I'm training for my third marathon this fall (which, first of all, may only be happening because I have enough time to train for it since I'm not working). I've been running a few fun runs around town--and strangely--my times are substantially lower than they usually are. I'm down to about 9:00 minutes per mile now for longer runs. I'm not sure if this is because I have all of a sudden developed some fast twitching muscle fibers, or if it's due to the fact that I have time to do quality runs. Last summer when I was taking 6 credit hours and working 40 hours a week, my running really suffered and I ended up missing out on the Fall marathons. Even when I would get out for a run in the morning it would be rushed--and if I waited until after work and school I was too exhausted to do anything but jog around the block a few times before crashing into bed. I think a lot of people probably have the same experiences-- it's tough to come home from work and find the energy to go outside for a speed workout on the track. However, when you're not working you have ample time to pursue your hobbies. So maybe the effect of laid-off workers on marathon times is really there-- at least a little bit.